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Poland’s parliamentary election, scheduled for this autumn, could be one of the country’s most important and consequential since the collapse of communism in 1989. Since it was elected in 2015, Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party has mounted a challenge to the country’s post-communist institutions and elites, and the policies pursued by them in both the domestic and international political spheres. Opinion polls suggest that, while Law and Justice will emerge as the largest party, it will also fail to retain its parliamentary majority, while the liberal, centrist and left-wing opposition parties should win enough seats to form the next government. But a relatively small shift in opinion over the next few months could change the balance of parliamentary representation, creating the realistic possibility of Law and Justice being re-elected for an unprecedented third term of office. Even if Law and Justice loses the election, a new government will have to ‘co-habit’ with a Law and Justice-backed President and constitutional tribunal, which can declare laws unconstitutional, and all of whose members have been appointed since 2015. This talk will examine the significance of the election, evaluate the ruling and opposition parties’ electoral prospects, and map out possible post-election scenarios.

SPEAKER

Aleks Szczerbiak is Professor of Politics at the University of Sussex. He is author of Poles Together? The Emergence and Development of Political Parties in Post-communist Poland (Central European University Press, 2001), Poland Within the European Union: New Awkward Partner or New Heart of Europe? (Routledge, 2012), Politicising the Communist Past: The Politics of Truth Revelation in Post-Communist Poland (Routledge 2018) and is currently working on a monograph on political parties and religion in post-communist Polish politics. He also publishes a research blog commenting on contemporary Polish politics from an academic perspective at: .

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